Confidence Change We calculated ΔBelief=LikelihoodR3−LikelihoodR1\Delta\text{Belief}=\text{Likelihood}_{R3}-\text{Likelihood}_{R1} to measure change in confidence from the first to third round. A total of 512 participants (91.9%) provided a final likelihood rating and were included in confidence change analyses.333The completion rates differed significantly by condition, χ2(4)=17.02\chi^{2}(4)=17.02, p=.002p=.002. The Random Sequence condition had the highest attrition (16.1% missing likelihood), while Rule Confirming had the lowest (1.8%).
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